THE MIDDLE EAST SHOWDOWN
SHAHZAD HASSAN JAFFAR
It has not been long since the trouble began in the Middle East Region where different governments have been toppled and replaced by new so called transitory governments whose purpose is only to serve the Western Interests as done in past by the previous governments installed by the same Western think tanks but when the purpose was fulfilled then the puppets were removed either by force or by will. No one is able to explain that what is the purpose of these new governments and now what is the purpose behind such actions? This is a very complex problem which has connections to different scenario in the Middle East that would be discussed.
Recently US President Barack Obama has announced the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan and Iraq simultaneously. In addition to that a very immediate response from Israel has also been on media where they have stated for an imminent strike on Islamic Republic of Iran, for which according to an international news agency they have planned to announce their future strategy in coming days. It must be reminded that International community particularly US and Israel have put allegations on Iran for the preparation and enrichment of its nuclear arsenal that could be used against the interests of US and Israel. It is important to mention that many analysts and even IAEA itself has stated that Iran is still not in a position to develop a nuclear weapon that could be a threat. If such is the case then why all this transition in the Middle East is in process? To explain this aspect it is important to initially examine the geographic and geo strategic importance of Middle East. When we discuss Middle East then the first error that we make is the countries embedded in this circle. Most of the times we only include the Arab states and ignore the regions of Iran and Pakistan. Geographically Iran and Pakistan both are a part of Middle East and the same has been at various times and locations stated by both US and Israeli Military Analysts. The reason not to formally describe these both states as Middle Eastern countries is the difference in Languages possessed by them.
Now coming to the main theme of the issue. If Iran is not yet capable of producing nuclear weapons then why Israel is hyping up such stories? We must remember that the state of Israel has a very important ally in the south East Asia who at one end is a threat to Pakistan and on the other hand is the possible ground to launch an attack on Iran if required. So if India is an important ally of Israel then the intentions and actions are conspicuous and dangerous. One can imagine that in the light of attack on Iran what are the hidden plans of the state of Israel? It would not be wrong to say that Iran is just a misguidance to the international community to attack another important Islamic state. Now the question is which Islamic state? Is it Saudia Arabia, Afghanistan or is it Islamic Republic of Pakistan? The answer to this question is very simple. Saudi Arabia in no more than the colony of USA at the current moment. Secondly when we talk about Afghanistan, it (Israel) is very much involved there. MOSAD has its various sanctuaries in Kandhar and nearby regions of Iran and Pakistan. Now when we talk about Pakistan then it is important to say that besides it geostrategic importance in the world, it also
has an immense importance in the Islamic World. Currently it is the only Nuclear Power in the Islamic world with the world’s best Armed Forces and Intelligence Agencies. Now it is easy to understand that why such maneuvering is being done by different international Armed forces including the US forces in Middle East and Afghanistan. We must remember that on the eve of May 28 1998 when Pakistan was about to test its Nuclear Weapons an imminent threat of war was there with Israel. The reason for this tension was that Israeli Air force had their F-16s ready at the Jammu Air Base in order to bomb the nuke sites as well as the Kahuta research Centre, but it was due to the effort and courage of the pilots of Pakistan Air force, that Israel had to retreat and cancel their plans.
Now the question arises if Israel attacks Iran or Pakistan what would be the possible consequences and the after effects. If we look towards the UN Security Council its permanent members such as China and Russia have already warned Israel to refrain itself from such action. On the other hand Pakistan too has warned India not to consider any possible surgical strikes on its soil. Currently Pakistan is also working on its various missile systems that could hit the target at a distance of 7000 KMs carrying nuclear warhead. The Region is already on fire, in Afghanistan, Iran and Pakistan where in addition of terrorist’s hideouts and war on terror, sectarian violence is also on peak. Such an action would only add fuel to fire. If in coming days Iran is attacked then according to my analysts including myself Pakistan would have to bring its Armed forces out of Western Borders and as a result more troops and artillery would be deployed on the borders of India and Iran for a possible expansion of war. A stage may also arise where the Pakistan Armed forces might give a free hand to the so called Pakistani Taliban’s to expand their operations in Afghanistan, as already the ISI is blamed of funding Haqqani Network of Taliban. One important aspect to remember is that in recent days Saudi Arabia is also have cold relations with US and other western countries on an attempt to exploit the political chaos caused in neighboring Saudi countries. If war occurs then there might be a possibility that Saudi Arabia would initiate a counter action program me by funding Al Qaeda in Iraq as well as Afghanistan to pressurize the NATO and ISAF to interfere in the matter followed by a resolution by the Security Council. If for instance these stated actions fail to bring peace then it is feared that Pakistan might use its Nuclear Weapons against the US allies in Middle East as well as in its neighbors that would be devastating for the whole region.
Already analysts have predicted of a possible World War III in coming years if this action of Israel is not stopped on immediate basis. When media is consulted it is clearly visible that cold war has already been initiated followed by a 4th Generation war between Pakistan and Israel that would have a very devastating end. One must remember that the beginning of a World War is when different countries start making blocks of allies that results in political, social and economical conflicts ending at a war. But it must be kept in mind that this war would not be a war on political ideology, rather this would be a war based on Religious ideologies.
